Still running hot. Cashed in the 4K Tuesday, followed by a final table at the Mookie last night. Went out to a brilliant overbet shove for value by wwonka69 from the SB into my BB, holding 77. I was a shorter stack, and definitely looking to double up soon, and his shove made me think he had anything but AA-88, and I thought a reasonable chance he had Ax, 55, 66. So when he turned over TT, that was it for me. I'm proud to say I didn't flinch regarding the money bubble. I used it when choosing when and who to raise late, but it never entered my mind when choosing to call all in with my final 77.
Two consecutive hands below, and after pushing HARD and winning a big pot with AQ, cpoke really didn't want to believe I had a good hand and shoved on the flop with his 55...
Awesome setup hand against Astin, who had A8 hearts and hit an 8 for 2 pair on the turn:
Two more consecutive hands (notice the chunk missing from Fuel55's stack after I reraised QQ and flopped JT2 rainbow):
It may be that I'm getting better cards these days, but I strongly suspect it's also that I'm playing more carefully, and therefore I am around long enough to get dealt a couple of premium hands.
4K Tuesday went well early on, but ragged late. Finished 19th for almost 2x (woohoo!) my $26 buyin.
The last hand was astounding, the 3 missing hands above are AA, KK, and A5 hearts for the nut flush. You've gots to be kidding me.
4K Wednesday, ugly. Got 3/4 of my stack in with rolled QQQ in Stud Hi, only to see the split KK I had trapped hit the 2-outer K.
The common theme these days, I'm playing LESS hands. Especially in the 4K, I'm keeping my investment minimal until I find a big hand, and then use that to win a big pot.
$4K HORSE Walkthrough
0:00 - 0:30
1500, fold fold fold fold fold. Often I even sit out the first Holdem and Omaha, because every hand is raised and shown down, so only the nuts will do.
0:30 - 1:00
1260-1650 chips, fold, limp/fold, fold, limp catch good, big pot. Then I'm either at 3000 (75%) or 700 (25%). Back to fold, limp/fold, complete/fold, fold, fold. Still looking for the stone cold nuts, anything less will risk an early exit. If you don't see any good hands in Razz or Stud, look hard for a chance to double up in Stud 8 or Holdem.
1:00 - 2:00
3000 chips is plenty to get through hour 2, so continue to play conservatively, folding when you catch bad or fall behind. Definitely upgrade the aggression in Razz, playing any hand like you have A2 in the hole until you have reason to think you're beat. Conservative for Stud Hi, people love to bet out, even when their big pair is unimproved all the way to the river. Then aggressive again for Stud 8, simply because of the massive inexperience of most HORSE players. Most will chase any 8 low, raise split 99 through KK, and make other questionable plays simply because they don't know any better. On a good night, you will catch one 34567 or flush/low, and now you're at 8000. Otherwise, usually around 2000-3000 here, at least able to keep even by stealing blinds a couple of times.
Blind stealing advice for Razz and Stud games:
Position, position, position, always steal in late position. Almost always need lowest/highest door card remaining, but based on players to act, occasionally can steal with 2nd best because it looks stronger, for instance raising a J with a Q and a 5 left to act. Aggressive players may bluff reraise Q high, but usually no one can call without QQ or better. Used sparingly, it's very effective.
If stealing and reraised, almost always fold immediately. Calling the reraise is too many chips, and we're somewhat behind to WAY behind. "Ya caught me, nice hand."
Ante stealing is a big part of getting through RSE levels. Simply because there is no flop, where players get 3 cards all at once. Calling someone's possible-steal bluff with a weak hand is 6 bets, and by the second hour, that's 1/3 to 2/3 of the average stack. For instance, in Stud High, if an A raises in front of me, and I have a pair (i.e. KTT), I fold. Even if his FT name is "Im_stealingwith_A93". To play back at them requires lots of chips and a solid read. They WILL bet to the river, do I want to bet they don't catch an A on 6th or make 2 crappy pairs? Only resteal if you know they can lay down a hand.
2:00 - 3:00
The bubble pops about halfway through hour 3, and chip ranges are usually 25K down to 5K. To safely survive the bubble, count on having a stack of 8000 or so. Then after the bubble pops, as in all tourneys, look for every stack under 10K to start shoving with crap, like 227 in Stud 8, or Ax in HE. With a big stack, this is donation time, just be careful to have a real hand when getting involved. With a medium/small stack, maintain composure, and find the best spot to get all the chips in. Medium/small stacks are 5 bets or less at this point, so no one is folding to short-stack bets any more. I personally hope to find a hand in a split game (O or E) with potential in both directions, but I'll settle for anything solid.
3:00 - 4:30
The last 3 tables pay, but the final table is the only destination. I'll gladly bubble in 25th if I have a good shot to double up. Standard payouts are $43 for 24th-17th, $95 for 9th, and $560, $800, $1250 for top 3. We waded through all of those donkeys and dodged all those 3-outers, it's time to get paid. And $135 for 7th just won't cut it.
Suddenly, aggression is the key. Bet at everything given the chance. Short-handed play also becomes a factor, because there will be a significant period when it will be 6-handed, and then 5-handed. Also, in general, most players still here made it because they are tight/solid players. There will still be some fuckwits, but by now we know exactly who they are and even what type, from "Callraise McChasey" to "J6J IS THE NUTZ!" Bet sizes are out of proportion to stacks now, so winning pots is way more important than making a big hand. If passed in a hand, fold, but immediately resume the pummeling as soon as possible.
A Few Final Thoughts:
Every time I've gone deep in these things, I've been top 3 in chips at the bubble. Often, I've been chip leader or 2nd for the previous 60-90 minutes also. There is no substitute for having a big stack, because it eliminates the variance that can put shorter stacks on the rail. Given 5 hands as a 70/30 favorite, a big stack will almost always see the +EV regardless, but a medium/short stack could be gone before the winners come.
Playing as the big stack, steal less often. Risk/reward is just not worth it, and getting involved in a sticky situation can put us right back with the pack. At the same time, the decreased frequency of steals combined with the big chip stack means our steals almost always go uncontested.
Razz shorthanded or heads up suckz ballz. Maintain focus, get through it, don't do anything dumb. And be ready for Stud, because everyone will be itching to take a stand in Stud after all the mindless Razz. Don't be that guy.
It's as simple as that, now take it down. The $4K is one of the best nightly tourneys on FT (for me to poop on!).
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