- Stud is a Limit game, and some people would argue (incorrectly) that bluffing in Limit is eternally -EV, because of the low cost of people calling/chasing.
- In Stud each player gets their own cards, so the number of permutations for a hand to play out is exponentially larger than in HE.
- In Stud, there are 5 betting rounds instead of 4, and unlike HE, all 5 are done with some information already revealed. There are only 3 in HE, since preflop there are no cards showing.
Given all this, bluffs need to be craftier, told more thoroughly and more consistently.
Big Picture:
Let's look at the flipside for a second. If bluffing is so hard and works so rarely in Stud, how should we adjust our game? Value bet more. Stud is all about VALUE BETTING.
Okay let's look at the 3 reasons in a little more detail.
1. Bluffing in limit is hard because people don't fold. I can't count how many times I've been at a limit table, seen somebody get their aces cracked by a runner-runner backdoor flush draw, and heard the winner proclaim, "hey, it's limit" as his justification for chasing and calling. And, while this of course is ridiculous, is does point out the major difference between limit and no-limit. The lack of implied odds and leverage.
Another example I've seen of this is when I've been playing $3/$6 or $4/$8 limit HE at a casino, and someone will plop down on the other side of the table, but only because he's waiting for his $1/$2 NL cash seat. He will raise aggressively, get 5 callers, and then proclaim on the river that he "couldn't bet enough". He was unable to force everyone out with his 3rd pair and aggro-raising.
Big Picture:
Adjust to the game, because it won't adjust to you.
Leverage is the additional "weight" or "force" of a bet, because of the implication that you can bet more on later streets. Calling any bet on an early street comes with the risk or having to call more, bigger bets later in the hand. For instance, if there is 100 in the pot, and you bet 100 on the flop, anyone who calls has to reasonably expect to have to call 300 (or more) on the turn and 900 (or more) on the river, to pick some nice round numbers for the pot amounts. So, by calling on the flop, he could be essentially risking his whole stack.
In Limit, this is not true, especially in cash games. At most you are liable for 4 bets per street, and that is generally rare, usually you can get there for 1 bet per street, maybe a raise or two along the way or at the end. But regardless, you will not be making any choices up front that could result in your whole stack going in the middle. Therefore, earlier street bets are much less forceful, because they lack the ability to threaten entire stacks.
Implied odds are a related concept. "Implied" because they don't actually exist yet, just probably will in the future. A simple example of this is playing small pocket pairs in HE. To win, you likely need to flop a set, and the odds of that are 7:1. How many times do you get to see those kinds of odds preflop? Hardly ever. But, implied odds tell you that if you hit a set, you will likely get 7:1 on your money (or hopefully much more) by the time cards are shown down and the pot is shipped.
You may be realizing right now that implied odds are one of the great donkey enablers. Fairly subjective, with lots of room for error, an amateur player will often over-estimate these to justify chasing draws and even low pairs incorrectly. There are two ways that he can do this:
1. Overestimate the amount of times he will catch and still win. Drawing at a straight with a dangerous board multi-way, he may not realize that half his outs are counterfeit.
2. Overestimate the payday of hitting the big hand.
Easily, number 2 is the prime source. Fixed so intently on catching that gutshot straight card on the turn, he doesn't realize that the preflop raiser will fold to his bet or check-raise, leaving him well short of the odds required to chase that miracle hand. Or, let's say the card DOESN'T come on the turn. Now he's looking at a big turn bet, and his odds just got SMOOSHED. (He will usually call anyways.)
Limit has very different implied odds, eliminating the profitability of many many longshots. This is because there is no way to accelerate the betting on later streets. Most monsters will be paid off by a check-raise on the turn, and a river call, but that's still only 3-4 BB. If a longshot is 10:1 or worse, it will take many players calling to the river to make that a profitable play.
So, no leverage, less implied odds. Again, what does that mean? Value betting wins the day. Understand that in Limit, bluffs are not a prime part of the game, they have their specific times and places.
2. In Stud, everyone gets their own cards, instead of everyone trying to make a hand using the 5 'community cards' in the middle. The number of permutations, or possibilities, goes up exponentially.
Now, to "counteract" that, this results in OODLES of information being given out as a constant stream. In HE and Omaha, by the time you get to the showdown, how many of the other players' cards have you seen? Zero. Any information you picked up during the hand was from betting, talking, or previous experience with this player. In Stud, you will have seen 4 of their 7 cards, telling you much more precisely what they could have. Furthermore, you will have seen a from a few to a couple dozen "burn" cards, cards that end up in the muck after people fold. Everyone's 3rd street who folded, 3rd and 4th from anyone folding on 4th, etc. This will help eliminate some of the hands they just cannot have, and at the same time help you define your odds and outs more precisely than if all the cards were hidden.
Why do I bring this up? Bandwidth. Capacity. Maximum Information Rate. Whatever you want to call it, the ability for humans to process information. In Stud, with SO MUCH MORE information, much of the skill is knowing how to filter that information to extract the useful parts. Therefore, by definition, much of the information that is given out is filtered, discarded, by a Stud player.
Good, veteran, attentive players will use much of this information to make very informed choices.
New, bad, marginal, or multi-tabling/tv-watching players will miss most extra information. How much? Assume that they can see their own cards, and maybe open pairs or obvious draws, nothing more. This is a very good estimate.
Big Picture:
How do we use this to our benefit? Broken record says, "Value bet!" Often they will filter out extremely juicy stuff, like even that they are likely DRAWING DEAD with 2 cards to come. Just keep quietly betting and take the pot. Don't wake them up, get them paying attention.
3. 5 betting rounds means longer hands. More action. More investment, both personally and financially, in each hand. Many, many players are incapable of laying down any hand after 5th street. One, because they read that folding after 5th street is rarely correct, based on pot odds. This is true, but they apply it universally. Two, because they can't stand the thought of folding a winning hand. The pleasure of winning, the thrill of raking the pot, the prestige of turning a junk draw into a winning hand. Faced with a choice on 5th, and considering all these benefits, many a player will gladly draw at a 12:1 dog when the pot is offering them 5:1. Over and over again.
Big Picture:
In Stud, if you are asking yourself the question, "Will they call?" the answer is "yes" or "probably yes."
The Bluff
Bluffing opportunities will be presented to you, not the other way around. Unlike HE, representing hands has diminished value. I mean, who cares if he believes you have a big pair (or two big pair) if he's drawing at a straight or flush anyways? In HE, this requires a very specific board, such as a twotone flop where you hit top pair or top 2 pair. In Stud, all of his cards are separate, so he's just making HIS OWN HAND. Raising to represent strength is only useful if you are drawing at the same class of hand, pairs vs. pairs, flush draw vs. flush draw, etc.
Bluffing requires consistency, which is harder to find in Stud games. You may start out 678 suited, and catch KK for your next two cards. The complexion of your hand has completely changed, and twists and turns like this happen all the time. If your hand takes a sudden turn, you MUST expect that your opponents will be confused about what you have. What will they do if confused? CALL DOWN. Period.
Big Picture:
So, you just spiked trips for your wired pair (e.g. (88)K58 ) in Stud Hi. What do you do? BET. RAISE. Put as much money into the pot as you can, because even though it's "obvious" that you hit your monster, they will pay you off. Knowing you likely have trips or better.
Bluffing requires ATTENTION. Your opponents are already swimming in a sea of information, yet you need to present them with some misinformation. If that information is lost before it gets to them, there is zero chance they will believe your bluff, how can they? They will get to the end of the hand, and wonder, "He was bluffing? Huh?" You may make a raise out of nowhere, and good players will sit up and take notice, but many players will immediately start thinking about their own cards, their own draws, maybe their own pot odds. It's a long way to get to "what does he have?", and if they don't ever get there, they will never consider your raise as scary. Period.
***
Let's look at an example hand.
Before we get started, know that my hand started A43 and I rivered the 10, but it shows this way because of the FT Hand Replay shuffling the cards. Which I'm so glad it does.
Here I start 34A, and when it's folded to me I raise. The other A calls, and we're heads up.
I get an 8 on 4th, and he gets a suited K. I bet, and he calls again.
Ok, so where am I right now? I have a low draw that will get home most of the time, and while it's an 8-draw, it's a good 8 and will most likely be the only low anyways. So, I feel good about where my hand is at, and like my chances, even if he's drawing at a big pair or flush.
5th brings a brick. Check check. It's a 3rd club, but there's no way he believes it's good for me, so I check behind. I love that his AK gives me position for the rest of the hand, or until I make an open pair. Either way, it's good.
6th brings more of the same. I pick up a gutshot draw, but still really hope to make a low. If I make a low, I'm freerolling to scoop the high. If not, hopefully I can make a big pair to have a chance to win the high. Again, I doubt a bet here makes him fold, and we're certainly not ahead by much if at all, so a value bet is out of the question.
7th comes the brick trifecta for me, the old QJT, but he quickly checks. Now, this is the moment I realized that I was being presented with a bluffing opportunity.
- 3300 in the pot, and the bet is 1200, giving my bet some serious weight. If I had bet 5th and 6th, it would be 1200 into 8100, and much easier to call.
- I've told a consistent story, likely starting either AA or 3 low cards. Betting the 8, checking the bricks.
- I have his attention. To make sure, I wait an extra few seconds on the river before betting. The last thing I need here is a quick, reactionary call.
He thought for a bit, and folded the best hand.
Notice how all the pieces came together for me, and only then did I pull the trigger.
***
Bluffing in Limit Stud is not a huge part of the gameplay, but it can get you those few extra pots, and we all know the value of those in both cash games and tournaments. In split games, although harder to execute, those few extra pots are even more significant, since you scoop the whole pot. But don't sit down thinking you can run the table by betting with air over and over. That may work at short-handed tables in games like HE, but in Stud you must be patient and only bluff when given the opportunities.
Big picture:
In Stud you must be patient and only bluff when given the opportunities.
There are additional things you can do during the hand to setup bluffs, and increase their success rate. I'll address those in Stud: Bluffing, Volume 2.
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